Theory Of Value In Sports Betting
But, what in fact is the value theory?! With a huge variety of content on the subject scattered all over the internet, it is very difficult to come to any absolute conclusion. Therefore, in this article, I will adopt an opinionated rather than analytical approach in order to answer what, in fact, value theory is.
Getting to the point, I believe that the theory of value is something 100% subjective and intangible, and I intend to explain why I think so in the following lines. But first we need to understand what a value bet is.
Value betting derives from a concept known as ‘Expected Value’. This concept is also known by the acronym EV. Therefore, the expected value can be positive (EV+), null or negative (EV-).
In this sense, as the sports betting falls into the category of high-risk investments, you need to understand whether your capital (money) is applied in a profitable asset in the long term or not.
In other words, you need to understand if the expected value (EV) of your bets is positive or negative in the long term. But how do I know this, Felipe?
Before continuing the explanation about value bets, it is necessary to understand some basic concepts about the operation of a bookmaker.
Firstly, it is necessary to understand that all odds are, in fact, percentages of a result to happen in a particular event. Understanding this will be decisive to find or not such value bets.
In addition, another idea that we need to have “tattooed” in our minds is that the betting sites invariably tend to win from the bettors in the long term. This is because these sites set the odds with values below what they really should be.
But why do bookmakers do that? Simple, my friend… They do it because of Juice and also because the bookmakers goal is always to leave the odds with a negative expected value (EV-), so they can profit over the bettors in the short/medium term.
Knowing this, it is clear that the task of all of us, as bettors, is to find inconsistencies in the odds that the bookmakers offer, in order to reverse the logic of the advantage that the bookmakers have over us.
In this sense, it is necessary to run away from what is EV- (the vast majority of cases) and search for EV+ opportunities. The only way that makes it possible for a bettor to be profitable in the long term is to invest his capital in bets that the expected value is positive (EV+).
How To Find Value Bets
Understanding what a value bet is, we need to train our eyes to find them. A good way to do this is to develop our own odds pricing method – How to find value bets
We have a great article on the subject which outlines some important variables that need to be taken into consideration when pricing odds – Online Betting Pricing Model
Variables ranging from the tactical alignment and technical quality of the squad, to the motivational factor of the teams involved in the match. With these notes transformed into percentages, you can compare them with the percentages (in the form of odds) offered by bookmakers on that particular event and define whether the bet is of value or not. But how, Felipe? Simple! And I will answer you with an example, because I believe it is always more didactic.